Tropical Season Watch
National Hurricane Center Downgrades Amanda, Monitors Gulf System While Florida Prepares for Impacts
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Tropical Storm Amanda — the first named storm of the 2026 Pacific season — has been downgraded to a tropical depression after making a devastating landfall in Central America. Now, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching closely as Amanda's remnants move into the Gulf of Mexico, where warm waters could spark a brand-new Atlantic storm within 24 to 48 hours, according to NHC.
The Atlantic season itself has been slow so far. NOAA's 2026 forecast calls for just 8 to 14 named storms total, well below recent record-breaking years. But experts warn that seasonal averages mean little to the states in a storm's path — especially Florida, which sits directly in the crosshairs of early Gulf systems, Ocala.com reported.
Amanda Crosses Into the Gulf and Could Regenerate
Amanda formed on May 30 as Tropical Depression One-E, about 100 miles south of the Guatemala-El Salvador border. It quickly strengthened into a tropical storm before slamming into southeastern Guatemala on May 31. Moving over mountains weakened it, but its remnants are now drifting into the warm Bay of Campeche — where water temperatures sit at 82 to 84°F, well above the 80°F threshold needed for tropical development, according to Jacksonville.com.
The NHC has rated the chance of a new Gulf system forming at "high" — roughly 60 to 80%. Because Amanda weakened over land before reaching the Atlantic, any new storm would get the next name on the Atlantic list, not keep the name Amanda. NHC Director Ken Graham warned that these systems bring dangerous flooding. "It's very efficient, very tropical rainfall," Graham said. "It rains a whole bunch real quick."
Central America Hit Hard: 42 Inches of Rain, Dozens Dead
Amanda's impact on Central America was severe. The storm dumped 1,087 millimeters — about 42.8 inches — of rain on La Unión, El Salvador, in just 70 hours. That is roughly 10% of the country's entire annual rainfall. At least 30 people died in El Salvador and 5 in Guatemala, with 11 still missing, according to Naples News.
The storm damaged 3,000 houses, triggered 1,114 landslides, and knocked out 28 bridges in El Salvador alone. El Salvador's President declared a 15-day state of emergency. UNICEF warned the storm "exacerbated the needs and vulnerabilities of children," many left homeless and crowded into shelters. Over 500,000 people across the region now face food insecurity after 12,000 hectares of corn and beans were destroyed, per Tallahassee.com.
Five Atlantic Waves Being Tracked, Three in the Caribbean
While Amanda grabs the headlines, the NHC is also watching five separate tropical waves moving through the Atlantic basin. Three of those waves are currently in the Caribbean Sea. Two more systems off the coasts of Mexico and Central America have a high chance of becoming tropical cyclones in the coming days, according to Ocala.com.
Forecasters stress that a "below-normal" season does not mean a safe one. NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg put it plainly: "Regardless of a slow season, we still want people to be ready." Florida faces particular risk — its geography makes it a natural target for early-season Gulf systems, no matter what the seasonal forecast says, Jacksonville.com reported.
What the 'Crossover' Storm Means for the U.S. Gulf Coast
This event is a rare "crossover" storm — a system that starts in one ocean basin and then reorganizes in another. The last time this happened was in 2020, when Tropical Storm Amanda crossed into the Gulf and became Tropical Storm Cristobal. When a storm weakens over land during the crossing, it loses its original name and gets a new one upon reformation, per NHC policy, according to News-Press.
A key driver here is a weather pattern called the Central American Gyre — a broad, slow-spinning area of low pressure that acts like a nursery for storms. It helps remnants like Amanda's quickly reorganize over warm Gulf waters. If the system becomes a named Atlantic storm, it would be an unusually early third storm for the season — a milestone that historically does not happen until August, Tallahassee.com noted.
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