Coastal Disturbance Watch
Hurricane Center Monitors Low-Pressure Area Forming Off Florida, Southeast US Coast
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The National Hurricane Center is watching a low-pressure system expected to form off the southeastern U.S. coast, giving it a 20% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next seven days, according to National Hurricane Center. If it becomes a named storm, it will be called Bertha — the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The system is projected to organize between July 1 and July 4, putting it squarely in the Independence Day holiday travel window. WKMG ClickOrlando meteorologist Jonathan Kegges warned that even if the storm stays weak, "deep moisture should surge into Florida from the Atlantic increasing rain and storm chances for the week ahead."
Why Development Odds Remain Low at 20%
The 2026 season is being shaped by a developing El Niño. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that pushes strong winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic. Those winds tear apart forming storms before they can grow. That explains why forecasters are cautious despite warm ocean temperatures off Florida's coast, according to Colorado State University.
The season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy — a measure of total storm activity — sits at just 0.4 units. That is 81% below normal for this date, according to National Hurricane Center. CSU has already lowered its full-season forecast to 11 named storms, down from the 1991–2020 average of 14.4.
AI Models Spotted This Storm Days Before Human Forecasters
Google DeepMind's AI weather model flagged signals of this low-pressure development as early as June 24 — three days before the NHC issued its official outlook, according to WKMG ClickOrlando. Human NHC forecasters still showed a 0% chance within the 48-hour window at that time. The gap highlights a growing tension between AI tools and traditional forecasting methods.
2026 is the first Atlantic season where AI ensemble models are widely used in public-facing advisories. The DeepMind model gave this disturbance a lead time of five to eight days — longer than any legacy model. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick called these tools "cutting-edge" for providing earlier storm warnings, according to NOAA.
A Close-to-Shore Storm Means Less Warning Time
If this system becomes Tropical Storm Bertha, it would be what forecasters call a "home-grown" storm — one that forms right off the coast rather than crossing the open Atlantic. That cuts the warning time residents get before landfall. National Hurricane Center says the most likely formation zone is near the Florida and Georgia coastline.
Even without tropical development, the moisture surge could cause serious freshwater flooding inland. NWS Director Ken Graham warned that inland flooding often "catches residents off guard" compared to wind threats on the coast. The first storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur, already caused an estimated $100 million in damage in June, according to Herald Tribune.
Below-Normal Season Does Not Mean Safe Season
NOAA puts the chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season at 55%. But analysts at Climate Impact Company warn that storm tracks this year favor U.S. coastlines over open-ocean paths. That means fewer storms could still mean more danger for people living along the Gulf and Southeast coasts.
CSU Senior Research Scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach put it plainly: "It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season." The odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast stand at 24% this year — well below the long-term average of 43%, according to Colorado State University. But residents are urged not to wait for a named storm before reviewing their preparedness plans.
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