Monsoon withdrawal begins
India and Nepal prepare for southwest monsoon withdrawal amid regional rain forecasts
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India’s IMD forecast heavy rain in Himachal Pradesh from October 5–7, Jammu and Kashmir on October 6–7, and Uttarakhand from October 5–7, with thunderstorms and gusty winds possible in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
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A fresh low-pressure area may develop over the Andaman Sea around October 13, according to the India forecast.
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IMD scientist S.D. Sanap said monsoon withdrawal is assessed partly by whether rain is absent for two to three consecutive days and whether the prevailing southwesterly winds weaken or reverse. An anticyclonic circulation over Rajasthan and adjoining areas was pushing dry air into Maharashtra.
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Nepal’s monsoon entered from the east on June 19 this year; the usual onset is around June 13, and the normal withdrawal date is October 2, though it varies from year to year.
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The southwest monsoon’s withdrawal began on September 19, two days later than its normal start date. The IMD forecast October–December rainfall over south peninsular India to be normal, defined as 88–112% of the long-period average.
India's southwest monsoon is entering its withdrawal phase across northern states and Maharashtra, with the India Meteorological Department expecting the retreat to accelerate in coming days Times of India. Heavy rain will still drench parts of the Himalayas through early October, but much of India will see rainfall ease as dry winds take hold. In Nepal, meteorologists predict the monsoon will withdraw by the Hindu festival of Dashain, though light rain may linger in eastern regions Nepal News.
The southwest monsoon withdrawal began September 19, just two days later than normal. Monsoon withdrawal is marked by two to three consecutive days without rain and a reversal of southwesterly winds to northeasterlies, according to India Meteorological Department scientist S.D. Sanap. An anticyclonic circulation over Rajasthan is now pumping dry air into Maharashtra, accelerating the retreat Times of India.
Heavy Himalayan Rain Before Conditions Dry Out
The India Meteorological Department forecasts heavy rainfall across key Himalayan states. Himachal Pradesh will see heavy rain October 5–7, with thunderstorms and gusty winds possible Times of India. Jammu and Kashmir face rain on October 6–7, while Uttarakhand will experience heavy downpours October 5–7, also with thunderstorms and strong winds. This rain arrives as the monsoon retreats southward.
After this wet spell passes, dry conditions will dominate northern India. Uttar Pradesh already saw the monsoon completely withdraw on Saturday, two days ahead of its normal date, ending three months of seasonal rains Times of India. Clear skies and warm days will follow, with cool nights as anticyclonic winds establish control over the region.
Maharashtra Records Earliest Withdrawal Since 2018
The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from parts of Maharashtra on October 3, marking the earliest retreat since 2018 Times of India. The India Meteorological Department linked this early exit to sharply declining rainfall activity across the state. This accelerated withdrawal suggests stronger anticyclonic circulation over western India is pushing the monsoon southward faster than typical.
Mumbai and nearby areas will now face drier conditions as the monsoon pulls back. TheIMD expects a fresh low-pressure area to develop over the Andaman Sea around October 13, which could bring scattered rain but won't prevent the overall seasonal transition. The northeast monsoon is expected to begin over Andhra Pradesh around October 15, bringing rains to south India.
Nepal's Monsoon Withdrawing Earlier Than Normal
Nepal's monsoon has exited from western parts of the country, with meteorologists predicting full withdrawal by Dashain Ratopati. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology said the monsoon is gradually weakening. This year's monsoon entered Nepal from the east on June 19, about six days later than the typical June 13 onset date Nepal News.
Light to moderate rain is still forecast in parts of Nepal's Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces Nepal News. The Himalayan regions of Koshi may see light snowfall as temperatures drop. The normal monsoon withdrawal date for Nepal is October 2, though it varies yearly. By mid-October, the country should transition fully into the dry autumn season.
South India Rainfall Expected to Remain Normal
While northern India and Nepal are drying out, the India Meteorological Department forecasts October–December rainfall over south peninsular India to be normal. Normal is defined as 88–112% of the long-period average Times of India. The northeast monsoon beginning in mid-October will sustain moisture over southern states, preventing a sharp rainfall deficit.
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