Europeans Eye Autonomy
European Trust in US as Ally Drops Significantly, Sparking Calls for Strategic Autonomy
Anonymous
Key Points
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ECFR specifically pointed to President Trump’s actions beyond NATO/Greenland—citing that he ordered a strike on Iran “without including European nations in the planning,” alongside threats to leave NATO, annex Greenland, and plan withdrawals of some U.S. troops from Europe.
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The findings were published ahead of the G7 and NATO summits, and the reporting said Italy was the only surveyed country where a clear majority remained opposed to increased national defense spending.
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On how to finance defense, the poll reported that 47% of Europeans supported joint EU borrowing for defense initiatives, with support highest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), and the Netherlands (55%). It also said “buy European” was especially strong in Denmark (75%) and that Poland was the main exception—most Poles backed buying U.S. weapons instead.
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Europeans’ willingness to fund defense through domestic austerity appeared limited: the article reported resistance to cutting domestic government spending to raise defense budgets remained strong in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), and Germany (56%).
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While most respondents continued to support Ukraine as an ally or strategic partner, the article said that consensus weakened on specific postwar steps—such as sending peacekeeping troops after the war and expanding the EU eastward.
Only 11% of Europeans now view the United States as an ally — down from 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024, according to a sweeping new poll by ECFR. The survey, covering nearly 20,000 people across 15 countries, marks what researchers called a "collapse in faith" in Washington as a reliable security partner.
About half of respondents still call the U.S. a "necessary partner," but roughly a quarter now see it as a rival or adversary, CBS News reported. For the first time, majorities in every surveyed country said they do not believe the U.S. would come to their defense if attacked.
Trump's Actions Drove the Sharpest Drop in Trust
The ECFR tied the decline directly to President Trump's second-term moves. He threatened to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe, push to annex Greenland, and — most critically — ordered strikes on Iran in February 2026 without including European governments in the planning, CBS News reported. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharpened the blow, stating the U.S. would make its own security decisions "whatever Europe thinks."
The poll was published just ahead of the G7 and NATO summits, giving European leaders a data-backed push to act. ECFR Senior Policy Fellow Paweł Zerka argued the public demand for self-reliance has opened "a window for Europe's leaders to go further and faster" on security integration, according to GV Wire.
Europeans Want More Defense Spending — But Not From Their Own Pockets
Support for higher defense budgets is growing across Europe, but voters are reluctant to pay for it through cuts to public services. Resistance to slashing domestic spending to fund defense was strongest in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), and Germany (56%), according to The Straits Times. Italy was also the only country where a clear majority still opposed raising national defense spending altogether.
The preferred solution is shared debt. Some 47% of Europeans backed joint EU borrowing to fund defense — what economists call "Eurobonds." Support was highest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), and the Netherlands (55%), CBS News reported. Denmark also led the "Buy European" push, with 75% favoring European over U.S. military hardware. Poland was the main outlier — most Poles still prefer buying American weapons.
Europeans Eye Nuclear Alternatives and an Independent Security Bloc
The poll found rising interest in a European nuclear deterrent that does not depend on the U.S. "nuclear umbrella" — the long-standing American pledge to defend allies with nuclear weapons if needed. ECFR Senior Policy Fellow Jana Kobzová noted, "Across the continent, there's clear support for reducing dependence on Washington," according to CBS News.
The EU has already begun building its own defense base. It recently launched a €150 billion loan program called SAFE — Security Action for Europe — along with the European Defence Industry Programme. These tools are designed to fund joint military projects and cut reliance on U.S. equipment, GV Wire reported.
Ukraine Support Holds, But Russia Energy Ban and Post-War Plans Divide
Most Europeans still back Ukraine as an ally or strategic partner. But the poll showed that consensus weakening when it came to specifics — like sending peacekeeping troops after the war ends or expanding the EU eastward to include Ukraine, CBS News reported.
On Russia, 44% of Europeans remained opposed to resuming oil and gas imports, even as energy costs stay high. Most Europeans also expect U.S.-European relations to recover once Trump leaves office — with one exception. Respondents in Bulgaria stood out, expressing notable skepticism that a change in U.S. leadership would restore the old alliance, according to San.
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