Global Weather Warning
El Niño Forms in Pacific, Experts Predict Historic Strength and Extreme Weather
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A new El Niño has officially formed in the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters warn it could rival the most destructive one on record. NOAA confirmed the event on June 11, issuing an El Niño Advisory and projecting it will reach "historic strength" by winter 2026-27. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it "fuel on the fire of a warming world" and warned that 2027 is on track to be the hottest year in human history.
The benchmark for comparison is the 1997-98 "Super El Niño," which caused roughly $5.7 trillion in global economic losses, according to The Guardian. This new event is developing at a similar speed and intensity. NOAA puts a 63% chance it reaches "Very Strong" status — meaning sea surface temperatures run at least 2°C above normal — by late 2026.
What El Niño Is and Why This One Is Different
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural Pacific cycle. Trade winds weaken, and warm water sloshes back toward the Americas. That shift rewires weather patterns across the entire globe. The last strong event, in 2023-24, caused $103.3 billion in confirmed damage, according to NOAA.
What makes this cycle alarming is the starting point. The Pacific was already running unusually warm before El Niño even began. NOAA climate scientist Michelle L'Heureux noted that El Niño now operates inside a climate already altered by fossil fuel pollution, which "exacerbates" heat records. Current sea surface temperatures are running 0.7°C to 2.1°C above normal across the four main monitoring zones.
UN Sounds Alarm as 2027 Looks Like Record Year
The Guardian reported that Guterres released a video message on June 8, calling the pattern an "urgent climate warning." He said its impacts will "hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed." The World Meteorological Organization put the probability of El Niño persisting through year-end at 90%.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed the event affects "agriculture, energy supplies, trade, and water resources across entire regions." Experts also warn of a rise in tropical diseases like malaria and dengue fever as rainfall patterns shift across South America and Southeast Asia. The UN is using this moment to push its "Early Warnings for All" initiative for vulnerable nations.
Who Gets Hit Hardest: Pacific Islands, Farmers, and the Poor
Hawaii and other Pacific islands face heightened risk. Researchers at Clark University point to increased tropical cyclone activity and severe drought that can trigger wildfires — similar to the 2023 Maui disaster. In the US South, El Niño typically brings more intense storms and heavier rainfall, which can delay spring planting, according to WSBTV.
Some US farmers may benefit. Midwest growers could see longer growing seasons due to milder winters. But the global picture is grim. Dartmouth economists Christopher Callahan and Justin Mankin estimate a "Super El Niño" of this scale could shave $3 trillion to $5 trillion off the global economy over five years. Their research frames it less as a weather event and more as a systemic economic shock.
$84 Trillion on the Line if Climate Change Amplifies the Cycle
The long-term numbers are staggering. Research published in Science projects $84 trillion in 21st-century economic losses if El Niño intensity keeps rising alongside climate change. The burden falls hardest on tropical, developing nations, which see GDP drained while wealthier countries in the "Global North" may even save on winter heating bills, according to the World Economic Forum.
The WMO is careful to note that climate change does not increase how often El Niño occurs — only how intense it gets and how much moisture its storms carry. Researchers say the next key checkpoint is Q3 2026 sea surface height data. That will confirm whether this event officially crosses the "Super El Niño" threshold and locks in what Guterres called a global climate red alert.
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