Florida Race Toss-Up

Florida's gubernatorial race tightens into a toss-up as new polling shows competitive margins.

Florida’s governor’s race has tightened, with Decision Desk HQ changing its rating from Lean Republican to toss-up; its forecast gives Republican Byron Donalds a 60% chance of defeating Democrat David Jolly, while cited polling also shows a close contest. Donalds’ campaign website has shifted its emphasis toward affordability and reduced prominent references to President Trump, though Donalds says he remains proud of Trump’s endorsement. Two redrawn congressional races have also become competitive: the 22nd District, where Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Casey Askar, was rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, and Florida’s 14th District is being treated as a toss-up in coverage of Kathy Castor’s race against Mike Beltran. Cost-of-living concerns and voter enthusiasm are cited as factors shaping the contests, while prediction-market odds give Democrats a strong chance of winning the House and a narrower edge in the Senate. Trump says he plans to campaign in competitive districts, beginning with events in reliably Republican Alabama and Oklahoma. Jolly has withdrawn from planned debates with Donalds, saying they would deepen division rather than encourage constructive discussion.

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