Hoffman's Uncertain Future
Toronto Blue Jays Evaluate Reliever Jeff Hoffman Amidst Up-and-Down Season
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Toronto Blue Jays reliever Jeff Hoffman is in crisis. He owns a 6.31 ERA in 2026 and just surrendered five earned runs while recording a single out against the Baltimore Orioles on May 30 — turning a 5-1 lead into a 6-5 walk-off loss, according to Athlon Sports. It is the latest chapter in a nightmare stretch for a pitcher the Blue Jays are paying $11 million per year.
The implosion has forced Toronto — sitting at 29-30 — into an urgent question: what do you do with a high-priced closer who the numbers say is unlucky but the scoreboard says keeps costing you games? Toronto Sun columnist Rob Longley calls June a "make or break month" for both Hoffman and the team's postseason hopes.
A $33 Million Closer Who Blew the World Series
The Blue Jays signed Hoffman in January 2025 to a three-year, $33 million deal to be their primary closer. He delivered 33 saves that year. But he also allowed 15 home runs — second-most among all MLB relievers — and posted a shaky 4.37 ERA, according to RotoWire. Then came Game 7 of the World Series.
With two outs in the ninth inning, Hoffman gave up a game-tying solo home run to Miguel Rojas. Toronto eventually lost in the 11th, according to FOX Sports. A devastated Hoffman said afterward, "I've cost everybody in here a World Series ring." That moment has followed him ever since.
2026 Collapse Forces Blue Jays to Pull Closer Role
Hoffman opened 2026 with three blown saves and a 7.59 ERA in his first 12 appearances. On April 24, GM Ross Atkins announced the team would "share that responsibility" in the ninth inning, removing Hoffman as primary closer. Atkins still praised Hoffman's "stuff" but acknowledged the situation was not working, per MLB.com.
Hoffman briefly recovered in May, posting a 2.84 ERA across 12.2 innings and regaining trust. Then came the Baltimore meltdown — 0.1 innings, three hits, two walks, five earned runs, 24 pitches. Manager John Schneider defended using Hoffman, saying new closer Louis Varland was unavailable: "He just wants to win. I still trust him. It's been a weird year," per CBC.
The Stats Say Unlucky — But the Scoreboard Disagrees
Advanced numbers paint a confusing picture. Hoffman's strikeout rate is 36.6% and his expected ERA (xERA) sits at just 3.15 — but his actual ERA is 6.31. The gap comes from a .516 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which leads all MLB relievers and shatters the previous record of .434 set in 2007, according to FanGraphs. In plain terms, batted balls are finding holes at a historic rate.
Critics are not buying the "unlucky" argument. On forums like Reddit's r/BlueJays, fans point to Hoffman's career 4.83 ERA as a truer measure of his talent. He has now blown 38% of his save chances in 2026 — three of eight opportunities. Hoffman himself remains defiant, telling Sportsnet: "I'd throw it again... and nail it nine out of 10 times."
Blue Jays Face Costly Choices With $22 Million Still Owed
Toronto has moved to a closer-by-committee model, splitting ninth-inning duties between Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers. The bullpen is already overworked, with Mason Fluharty leading the AL in appearances with 31, according to the Gate 14 Podcast. A trade for a reliable arm before the July deadline is gaining urgency.
The bigger problem is money. Hoffman is owed roughly $22 million through 2027, per Baseball Reference. If he keeps struggling, the Blue Jays face a classic sunk-cost dilemma — keep him in low-stakes mop-up duty, or designate him for assignment and eat the contract. Neither option is good for a team that needed him to be its backbone.
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