Commodity Markets Shift
Corn traders hold near-record net-long positions as tightening energy supplies shape commodity markets.
Anonymous
Key Points
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Commercial corn traders held a net-short position of 474,811 contracts as of Sept. 22, while the December 2026 contract traded 13¾ cents below March 2027—a spread that had firmed in seven of the previous eight weeks.
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Soybeans rose roughly 9–10 cents in Tuesday trading as the market rebounded from a steep prior-session selloff; traders were also watching for further U.S. purchases by China, whose latest tariff reductions did not include soybeans.
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U.S. natural-gas storage surplus peaked in April at about 7.7% above its five-year seasonal average before hot summer weather boosted electricity demand; natural gas accounts for nearly 40% of U.S. power generation.
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Economist Tracy Shuchart said about 6 million barrels of oil a day were still not passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and warned that lost Gulf production would not return quickly; she pointed to crack spreads as a sign of market stress.
Corn traders are holding near-record bullish bets even as futures prices edge lower, signaling confidence that harvest pressure will ease soon. As of September 22, noncommercial traders maintained a massive net-long position while commercial traders held a net-short of 474,811 contracts Forex Factory. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are climbing on stronger U.S. liquefied natural gas exports and tightening global supplies, with U.S. storage surpluses narrowing and European inventories lagging five-year averages.
Corn Spreads Firm as Traders Bet on Price Recovery
The December 2026 corn contract traded 13¾ cents below the March 2027 contract as of late September, a spread that had firmed in seven of the previous eight weeks Forex Factory. This pattern reflects trader expectations that near-term harvest supply will pressure December prices while longer-dated contracts hold their ground. The steepening backwardation suggests markets see spring demand outpacing winter supply tightness.
Soybeans Rebound After Steep Selloff on China Uncertainty
Soybean futures jumped roughly 9–10 cents in Tuesday trading, erasing losses from the previous session's sharp decline Investment Guru India. Traders remain focused on whether China will resume U.S. soybean purchases after its latest tariff reductions notably excluded the crop. Any new Chinese buying could quickly reverse the recent weakness and support prices heading into fall.
U.S. Gas Storage Shrinking as Demand Rebounds
U.S. natural gas storage surplus peaked in April at about 7.7% above its five-year seasonal average, then shrank as hot summer weather boosted electricity demand Forex Factory. Natural gas now accounts for nearly 40% of U.S. power generation, making storage levels critical to winter preparedness. Storage surpluses are narrowing much faster than seasonal norms, while European inventories sit below their five-year average, tightening global supply.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Deepens Oil Supply Crunch
About 6 million barrels of oil per day remain blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to economist Tracy Shuchart Investment Guru India. She warned that lost Gulf production will not return quickly, creating a lasting supply gap. Crack spreads—the difference between crude and refined product prices—show rising market stress, signaling that refinery constraints could deepen through winter as demand increases.
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