Record Winter Weather Ahead
Historic El Niño Expected to Shape Winter Weather Across North America
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Key Points
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The National Weather Service gives the El Niño a 75% chance of becoming the strongest on record. Mid-Pacific surface temperatures were 1.8 degrees Celsius above average on Sept. 10, compared with the previous three-month record of 2.4 degrees above normal set in the winter of 1982-83.
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The latest weekly Relative Oceanic Niño Index reading reached 2 degrees Celsius above average, the upper limit of the official “very strong” category; events beyond that threshold are unofficially classified as a “super El Niño.”
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Drought is already extensive in the Pacific Northwest: 91% of Oregon, 71% of Washington and 73% of Idaho were covered by drought as of Sept. 10, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By contrast, only 18% of California was in drought.
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A 75-year National Weather Service analysis found that Tucson received more precipitation than usual from November through April during nine of the past 11 moderate-to-strong El Niño events, although forecasters caution that the pattern does not guarantee a wetter season.
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Research using coral samples from the Galápagos and computer modeling found that the increasing strength of El Niño events in recent decades is linked to atmospheric warming from fossil-fuel burning, rather than solely to natural variability. Researchers warned that the current event is occurring on top of global warming and could intensify the temperature increase associated with greenhouse gases.
A rapidly strengthening El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record, with Pacific Ocean surface temperatures soaring to dangerous levels. National Weather Service forecasters give it a 75% chance of breaking the all-time record set in 1982-83, while the latest ocean readings have entered unofficial "super El Niño" territory. The warming pattern is already fueling intense wildfires across Indonesia and will reshape winter weather across North America through spring.
Global warming is amplifying the effect, with research showing that human-caused atmospheric warming has intensified El Niño events in recent decades beyond natural variation alone. Egypt Independent reports that this El Niño has reached unprecedented strength, strengthening rapidly since its first declaration in June and breaking major thresholds as we head into the winter season.
Pacific Waters Hit Dangerous Temperature Records
Mid-Pacific surface temperatures hit 1.8 degrees Celsius above average on September 10—approaching the previous record of 2.4 degrees set in winter 1982-83. The latest weekly Oceanic Niño Index reading reached 2 degrees Celsius above normal, the upper limit of the official "very strong" category. Fast Company notes that ocean temperatures are set to exceed the strength of previous El Niño events, with the pattern occurring every two to seven years due to warmer-than-usual water in the central and eastern Pacific.
Western Drought Worsens While Wildfires Rage
The warming ocean is already triggering severe impacts. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 91% of Oregon, 71% of Washington, and 73% of Idaho faced drought conditions by September 10. By contrast, only 18% of California was in drought, though the region remains at risk. Intense wildfires are spreading across Indonesia as a direct result of the El Niño pattern and its associated dry conditions.
Winter Weather Forecast: Warmer but Unpredictable
The northern Plains will experience warmer-than-normal winters but will still see brief periods of heavy snow and bitter cold. KTRE reports that strong-to-super El Niño conditions could bring above-normal rainfall to parts of East Texas. The Pacific Northwest faces a mild, relatively dry winter with reduced snowpack, while California and the Southern Rockies may receive more frequent mountain snow.
The Northeast and Midwest are likely to start winter warm, with storms producing more rain than snow due to limited cold air. A 75-year National Weather Service analysis found that Tucson received above-normal precipitation from November through April during nine of the past 11 moderate-to-strong El Niño events, though forecasters caution that patterns do not guarantee wetter conditions everywhere.
Climate Change Is Amplifying El Niño's Strength
Research using coral samples from the Galápagos and computer modeling reveals that fossil-fuel burning has intensified El Niño events in recent decades. The strengthening goes beyond natural climate variability alone. Egypt Independent warns that the current event is occurring on top of global warming, meaning it could intensify the temperature increase associated with greenhouse gases and compound climate impacts globally.
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