Texas Senate Debate Challenge
Democrat James Talarico Challenges Ken Paxton to Fox News Debate Amid Tight Texas Polls
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Key Points
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Despite Talarico’s six-point lead in the Marist poll, 52% of Texans said they believe Paxton will win the Senate race.
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Talarico said Paxton’s campaign had declined invitations from three local Texas television stations after previously saying it would debate; Talarico proposed debating Paxton with Fox News anchor Bret Baier.
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The Marist poll found that 39% of Texas voters viewed their congressional vote as a vote against President Donald Trump, compared with 25% who said it was in support of him; 34% said Trump was not a factor.
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Affordability emerged as a prominent concern in the Marist survey: 38% of voters said their finances had worsened over the past year, while 23% said they had improved.
Democrat James Talarico has challenged Republican Ken Paxton to debate on Fox News, with just three weeks until early voting begins. San Antonio Current reports that Talarico proposed Fox News anchor Bret Baier as the moderator, accusing Paxton of dodging earlier debate invitations from three local Texas television stations. Talarico currently leads in most polls — by one point in Texas Southern University and Emerson surveys and six points in a Marist poll.
Yet 52% of Texas voters still believe Paxton will win the Senate race, despite his trailing in surveys. Paxton's campaign says it intends to debate but has not committed to a specific host. The race has become consequential for Democrats seeking their first statewide Texas victory in decades, as Paxton's impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House and continued unpopularity leave him vulnerable.
Talarico Leads Among Black, Latino, and Women Voters
Talarico is winning key demographic groups that could decide the race. Texas Southern University polling data shows Talarico leading among Black voters, Latino voters, and women. By contrast, Paxton leads among white voters, men, and voters 55 and older. Some Republicans say they plan to vote for Talarico, signaling cracks in GOP unity.
To capitalize on this advantage, Talarico is investing $25 million in outreach to Black voters. He is also highlighting support from Republicans, including former Paxton allies, to attract moderate and independent voters. Both candidates carry unfavorable ratings in the Texas Southern University survey, suggesting swing voters remain persuadable.
Voters Cite Affordability and Trump as Key Concerns
Economic hardship is shaping how Texans view the Senate race. A Marist poll found that 38% of voters said their finances had worsened over the past year, while only 23% said they had improved. This economic anxiety could boost Talarico's message if he successfully frames the race around bread-and-butter issues.
Trump's presence looms over the contest. The Marist survey found that 39% of Texas voters said their congressional vote was a vote against President Donald Trump, compared with 25% who voted in support of him. Another 34% said Trump was not a factor in their decision, leaving a substantial persuadable middle.
Paxton's Debate Avoidance Becomes Campaign Issue
Talarico is using Paxton's reluctance to debate as evidence of weakness. Joe My God reports that Talarico claims Paxton has been avoiding debates throughout the year. The Democratic nominee rejected Paxton's vague commitment to debate, demanding a concrete agreement with a major network and a well-known moderator.
Paxton's campaign response has been noncommittal. His team said it intends to debate but stopped short of accepting Talarico's Fox News proposal or committing to any other format. With early voting just weeks away, Talarico is gambling that voter frustration over Paxton's evasiveness will drive turnout in his favor.
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