Only Three Altcoins Pass Relative-Strength Test
Only Three Altcoins Pass Relative-Strength Test
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Key Points
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Bitcoin’s four-hour chart shows the 50-period EMA at $77,122.54 acting as immediate resistance, while the 200-period EMA at $74,580.17 provides longer-term support; the MACD has formed a bullish golden cross despite the potential rejection at the upper Bollinger Band.
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Core’s short-term outlook carries an estimated 76% statistical probability of continuing the uptrend within the projected $0.0186–$0.02 range, although its price remains well below the 200-period moving average at $0.0347.
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The relative-strength screen has a notable blind spot: Zcash failed the test because it remained about 64% below its 2016 peak, yet it subsequently rose roughly 120% in a month and moved above $1,000 for the first time in nearly a decade.
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Kyle Doops’s bullish case for TRON is based on a cup-and-handle pattern, with a projected 100% extension at $0.4359—slightly above TRX’s record of $0.4313.
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The altcoin market’s potential breakout would be especially significant because the ratio has repeatedly failed at the same descending resistance since the 2024 market cycle; a sustained weekly move above it would break the established sequence of lower highs and signal improving relative strength.
Bitcoin is trapped near $77,000, waiting for a decisive move to confirm the next leg higher. According to technical analysis, only three altcoins among the 20 largest non-stablecoin assets—Hyperliquid, TRON, and Monero—are passing the relative-strength test, signaling that most alternative cryptocurrencies remain under pressure CryptoNews.
The broader altcoin market is pressing against a multiyear descending trendline after months of consolidation. CryptoRank notes that a sustained weekly breakout above this resistance would break the pattern of lower highs and signal improving relative strength versus Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Needs a Clean Break Above $77,000
Bitcoin's four-hour chart shows the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,122.54 acting as immediate resistance. A clean break above this level is required to signal a return toward recent highs. The 200-period EMA sits lower at $74,580.17, providing longer-term support if the price pulls back.
The MACD has formed a bullish golden cross despite potential rejection at the upper Bollinger Band CryptoSlate. Traders are watching closely: a failed push above $77,000 could trigger a pullback toward the mid-$75,000s before bulls regain momentum.
Core Consolidates With 76% Probability of Uptrend
Core has gained more than 8% and shows short-term bullish momentum. Technical analysis suggests a 76% statistical probability the uptrend continues within a range of roughly $0.0186 to $0.02. A decisive move above $0.02 is needed to confirm stronger upside potential.
The token remains well below its 200-period moving average at $0.0347, indicating the longer-term trend is still downward CryptoRank. This mixed technical picture suggests Core may consolidate sideways before breaking out decisively in either direction.
Three Altcoins Stand Out in Relative-Strength Screening
Hyperliquid, TRON, and Monero are the only three altcoins among the 20 largest non-stablecoin assets passing the relative-strength test. Most major altcoins remain well below their record highs, reflecting weak positioning relative to Bitcoin.
TRON's bullish case rests on a cup-and-handle pattern with a projected 100% extension target of $0.4359—slightly above TRX's all-time record of $0.4313 CryptoNews. This technical setup suggests substantial upside if the pattern completes as expected.
The Blind Spot: Deeply Depressed Tokens Can Soar
Focusing only on assets that have held up best can miss sharp recoveries in deeply depressed tokens CryptoRank. Zcash failed the relative-strength screen because it remained roughly 64% below its 2016 peak. Yet it subsequently rallied about 120% in one month and moved above $1,000 for the first time in nearly a decade CryptoSlate.
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