Disputed Warning Reports
UAE and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Reject Reports of Pre-October 7 Warning
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Key Points
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The alleged call between Mohammed bin Zayed and Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly lasted about 45 minutes, and the intelligence was allegedly not passed on to the heads of Israel’s security establishment.
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The alleged warning reportedly included concern that a Hamas operation could cause widespread bloodshed, destabilize the region and damage the achievements of the Abraham Accords.
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Abu Zaida said his mediation efforts involved negotiations over the release of two Israeli civilians held by Hamas and the bodies of two Israeli soldiers. Proposed Israeli concessions reportedly included releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, easing the Gaza blockade, permitting Palestinian workers to enter Israel, and addressing Gaza’s electricity and water crises.
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Abu Zaida is a former Palestinian Authority minister for prisoner affairs affiliated with a Fatah faction that supports Mohammed Dahlan; he left Gaza for Egypt at the beginning of the war and has since lived in Cairo.
The United Arab Emirates has flatly rejected a report that President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about an imminent Hamas attack before October 7, 2023. UAE Officials said security and intelligence matters are handled through official professional channels, not direct presidential calls. Netanyahu's office also denied the conversation happened and said it is pursuing legal action against the report.
The disputed account comes from a Haaretz investigation claiming bin Zayed received intelligence that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing an "earthquake" or "huge surprise" if negotiations stalled. According to the report, a former Palestinian minister named Sufian Abu Zaida relayed Sinwar's warning through a Palestinian adviser. Abu Zaida now plans to reveal more details about his role as a go-between.
The Alleged Call That Never Happened
The reported conversation between bin Zayed and Netanyahu allegedly lasted about 45 minutes, Reuters sources say. Netanyahu's inner circle was not informed of the call, according to the Haaretz investigation. The alleged warning included concerns that a Hamas operation could cause massive bloodshed, destabilize the entire region, and damage the Abraham Accords peace agreement between Israel and the UAE.
A Former Palestinian Minister's Secret Mediation
Sufian Abu Zaida, a former Palestinian Authority minister for prisoner affairs, claims he served as a go-between before October 7. Middle East Eye reports that Abu Zaida, who is affiliated with a Fatah faction supporting Mohammed Dahlan, left Gaza for Cairo when the war began. His mediation efforts focused on releasing two Israeli civilians held by Hamas and recovering the bodies of two Israeli soldiers.
Proposed Israeli concessions in these negotiations were significant. They included releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, easing the Gaza blockade, permitting Palestinian workers to enter Israel, and addressing Gaza's electricity and water crises. Abu Zaida plans to disclose exactly what message he conveyed from Sinwar to bin Zayed through his Palestinian adviser.
Sinwar's Warning About An Impending 'Earthquake'
According to the Haaretz report, Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar told Abu Zaida he was preparing an "earthquake" or "huge surprise" if prisoner negotiations failed. The message allegedly included specific warnings about widespread bloodshed and regional destabilization. Sinwar reportedly wanted Israel to understand the severity of the consequences if talks broke down, though the exact timeline of his threat remains unclear.
The Debate Over What Israel Knew and When
The case raises a critical question: Did Israeli security leaders receive advance warning of the October 7 attack? Jerusalem Post reports that the UAE maintains it shared relevant intelligence through official channels, not personal calls. Netanyahu's office has called the entire story false and is taking legal action against those responsible for publishing it. The conflicting accounts fuel ongoing debate about intelligence failures that allowed the Hamas attack to succeed.
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