Trade Uncertainty Disrupts
New Purolator Research Finds Trade Policy Uncertainty Exceeds Tariff Impact on Cross-Border Business
Anonymous
Trade policy uncertainty is now hurting North American businesses more than tariffs themselves, according to new research from Purolator. The study surveyed 348 supply chain and logistics decision-makers across Canada and the U.S. — and found that unpredictable rules and shifting compliance requirements are harder to manage than the actual cost of duties.
While 93% of businesses have already made operational changes in response to tariffs, only 39% feel fully prepared to handle further disruption, Purolator found. Canadian firms are losing an average of $661,000 per year. U.S. firms are losing $710,000. Both numbers reflect a 23% average hit to revenue.
The Readiness Gap Leaving Most Businesses Exposed
The report, titled *The Burden of Uncertainty*, reveals a sharp divide between businesses that have reacted to tariffs and those that are truly ready for what comes next. Brett Huttman, VP of Strategy at Purolator, said businesses are currently "reacting rather than preparing." He warned that shippers need practical options when "decisions can't wait for perfect clarity."
The survey covered the retail, technology, healthcare, and industrial sectors. Only 39% of respondents said they were fully prepared to implement new changes if trade conditions worsen. That gap matters most now. The first formal review of the CUSMA/USMCA trade agreement is due July 1, 2026 — and the outcome is far from certain.
Why Uncertainty Stings More Than a 10% Tariff
Businesses can budget for a known cost. A 10% tariff is a number — it can be priced in. But a shipment held at the border for 30 days because documentation rules changed overnight is not. Purolator found that frequent policy shifts and unclear compliance requirements are what's really grinding operations to a halt.
The complexity runs deep. Since 2025, the U.S. has layered Section 232 metals duties, Section 301 anti-forced-labor rules, and IEEPA-based tariffs on top of each other. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency found a 70% non-compliance rate for certain goods like plastics and footwear in 2025, showing just how hard it is to keep up, according to The Whitecourt Star.
USMCA Review Looms as Trump Eyes the Exit
The pressure is not letting up. On June 10, 2026, President Trump said he is "not looking to renew" the USMCA, citing trade deficits in cars, lumber, and energy. The July 1 joint review deadline is now days away, and analysts warn that even a failure to extend the deal — not a full collapse — could trigger years of ongoing uncertainty.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said a "rubberstamp" of the USMCA is not in the national interest. More than 150 CEOs and labor unions have pushed back, testifying that doubt about the deal's future is already slowing hiring. The Brookings Institution warns that unresolved reviews could trigger up to 10 years of annual renegotiations, according to Prince George Post.
What Businesses Should Do in the Next 12 Months
Purolator lays out a clear playbook. Businesses should audit their CUSMA/USMCA compliance now, before rule changes force costly corrections. They should also assess their full tariff exposure — knowing exactly which goods are vulnerable and by how much. Working with logistics partners who offer proactive trade guidance is listed as a key step.
Diversification is the other big recommendation. Canada has 15 free trade partners beyond the U.S. Trade with the UK and Singapore has already surged by 300% and 204% respectively as businesses look to reduce their reliance on the American market. The message from Purolator is direct: the rules will keep changing, so the companies that build flexible supply chains now will be the ones that survive the next shock.
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