California Winter Outlook
Farmers' Almanac Forecasts "Rain, Mixed Precipitation" for California's 2026-27 Winter
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The Farmers' Almanac has released its winter 2026-27 forecast for California, calling for "rain or mixed precipitation" with "mild" temperatures across the state. Kansas City Star reports that the southern part of California could face "wet and stormy" conditions as an active storm track pushes from Southern California through the Desert Southwest all the way to Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast.
The forecast also flags El Niño as a key driver of the season. El Niño has already arrived, and NOAA puts the odds of it becoming "very strong" by October through December at just over 80%, according to Miami Herald.
Southern California Braces for Wet and Stormy Winter
The Farmers' Almanac singles out Southern California as a zone to watch. The region sits directly in the path of an active storm track the Almanac expects to run from the Desert Southwest to the Gulf Coast. That means repeated rounds of rain and possibly mixed precipitation — rain mixed with sleet or snow at higher elevations.
The rest of California gets a milder outlook. The Almanac predicts "rain or mixed precipitation" statewide but does not flag the northern part of the state for the same level of storm activity as the south. Temperatures are expected to stay mild rather than turn sharply cold, according to Kentucky.com.
El Niño's Growing Strength Could Amplify the Forecast
El Niño is a warming of the central Pacific Ocean. It shifts storm tracks and brings more rain to the southern United States, including California. The Farmers' Almanac says El Niño will remain "an important influence" throughout the entire winter season.
NOAA's numbers back that up. The agency puts the chance of El Niño becoming "very strong" by the October-through-December window at more than 80%. A very strong El Niño often brings heavy rainfall and flooding to California, based on past events like the powerful 2015-16 and 1997-98 seasons.
A Broad Storm Track Stretches Across the Sun Belt
The Almanac's storm track does not stop at California's border. It stretches east through the Desert Southwest, into Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and up through the Southeast. That means a wide swath of the country could see active winter weather tied to the same weather pattern hitting California.
This kind of setup is typical during a strong El Niño. The jet stream — a fast-moving river of air high in the atmosphere — dips south. That pulls storms into states that sometimes see little winter precipitation. For California, it can mean weeks of back-to-back storms rather than isolated rain events, according to Kentucky.com.
Other Forecasters Also Point to a Wetter California Winter
The Farmers' Almanac is not alone in its wet outlook. Other seasonal forecasts also suggest California could see significant rainfall in the coming winter. A strong El Niño tends to bring agreement across multiple forecasting models, since its effects on California are well-documented.
Still, seasonal forecasts are not guarantees. The Farmers' Almanac uses a blend of solar activity, weather patterns, and historical data to make its calls. It publishes predictions up to two years in advance — far beyond the range of standard meteorological models. Readers should treat the forecast as a general guide, not a precise day-by-day prediction, according to Kansas City Star.
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