El Niño Heat Mortality
Prolonged El Niño Projected to Cause Nearly 16,000 Heat Deaths in India
Anonymous
A Climate Impact Lab report from the University of Chicago projects about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027 if the current intense El Niño persists, with nearly half occurring from December through February. The report estimates roughly 451,000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide during the episode, concentrated in already hot, poorer regions of the Global South, including South and Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America. Researchers say the event could raise global land temperatures about 1.2°C above normal and produce 44% more extremely hot days than in a typical year, resembling climate conditions expected decades in the future. Experts emphasize that heat warnings alone will not be enough and urge governments to expand hydration outreach, cooling centers, hospital capacity, preparedness plans and anticipatory financing. A heat expert cautioned that India’s challenge will be implementing existing plans effectively rather than simply issuing more warnings.
Key Points
1
The projection carries an uncertainty range: India’s estimated 15,800 excess heat-related deaths have a margin of approximately ±1,600 deaths.
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India is projected to rank fourth worldwide for heat-related mortality during the September 2026–February 2027 forecast period; about 7,400 of the country’s estimated deaths are expected between December and February.
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The Climate Impact Lab’s estimates are based on temperature–mortality relationships developed separately for 24,378 regions, incorporating local climate, vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and applied to a 51-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal ensemble.
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The projected additional mortality is especially concentrated in several other countries: roughly 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia combined, 19,300 in Indonesia and 13,300 in Brazil.
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Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the findings extend climate forecasting from effects on crops to the risk of death, while describing the projected toll as an estimate of how many people “may die in the coming months due to El Niño.”
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