Atlantic Hurricane Disturbance
Central Atlantic Disturbance Could Develop Into Tropical Storm Fay Amid Inactive Season
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Key Points
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The National Hurricane Center said a well-defined center appeared to be developing and that, if the trend continued, a tropical depression could form as soon as Sept. 18; the system’s formation odds had risen from 30% over seven days to 60% over 48 hours in a special update.
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Even if the disturbance becomes a tropical depression, European-model ensemble forecasts put the chance of reaching named-storm strength at less than 10%, making Tropical Storm Fay relatively unlikely.
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By Sept. 16, the Atlantic had produced five short-lived tropical storms and no hurricanes, compared with the climatological average of about nine named storms and four hurricanes by that point in the season.
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Invest 98L is a designation the National Hurricane Center uses for systems of interest so that higher-resolution computer forecast models can be run on them; satellite imagery showed northerly wind shear blowing thunderstorms away from the low-pressure circulation.
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Colorado State University forecast a 78% chance of below-normal tropical activity through Sept. 29, compared with a 20% chance of near-normal activity and just a 2% chance of above-normal activity.
Tropical Storm Fay has formed in the northern Atlantic Ocean, becoming the sixth named storm of the exceptionally quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season Miami Herald. Located about 450 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, Fay poses no immediate threat to land and is expected to drift over open water AJC. The storm's formation caps weeks of monitoring by the National Hurricane Center, which tracked the system as Invest 98L before it developed enough organization to earn a name.
A Slow Path From Disorganization to Named Storm
The system that became Fay started as a messy cluster of thunderstorms, tracked by forecasters as Invest 98L. By mid-September, the National Hurricane Center said a well-defined center was appearing and that formation odds had jumped from 30% over seven days to 60% over the next 48 hours. On September 20, those predictions came true when Fay officially crossed the threshold into tropical storm status Palm Beach Post.
Wind shear—when winds at different altitudes blow in different directions—had initially torn the system apart. Satellite images showed northerly winds blowing thunderstorms away from the low-pressure center, making organization difficult. Improved conditions later in the week finally allowed the circulation to tighten enough for tropical storm formation.
The 2026 Season Has Been Unusually Quiet
By mid-September, the Atlantic had produced only five named storms and zero hurricanes. That's far below the historical average of roughly nine named storms and four hurricanes by the same point in the season. Fay's arrival as the sixth storm marks only a modest increase in a season shaped by El Niño, a climate pattern that cranks up wind shear and suppresses tropical development.
Forecasters at Colorado State University predicted a 78% chance of below-normal activity through late September. They gave just a 2% chance that activity would exceed normal levels. The subdued season reflects how El Niño's influence continues to make it harder for tropical systems to form and intensify News-Press.
Fay's Future Remains Uncertain Despite Formation
Even though Fay officially became a tropical storm, its survival prospects are shaky. European forecast models put the chance of it maintaining tropical storm strength at less than 10%, meaning the system could weaken back into a depression or dissipate entirely {{Treasure Coast
Forecasters predict that Fay will drift slowly westward or west-northwestward before turning northeast and staying over open water News-Press. With no nearby land in its path and continued wind shear expected to limit strengthening, Fay should cause no impacts to the United States, Caribbean, or Bermuda.
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