Tight Texas Senate Race

Recent Texas Senate polls show Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton.

Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in recent Texas Senate polls: Big Data Poll reported 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters and 44.6% to 41.6% among likely voters, while Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico ahead 49% to 44%. Big Data Poll also found that undecided voters could narrow Talarico’s margin and that he attracts more support from 2024 Trump voters than Paxton receives from Harris voters. Analysts cite economic concerns, Trump’s weakened approval and other national issues as potential headwinds for Paxton, and compare the contest with Beto O’Rourke’s close 2018 Senate challenge to Ted Cruz. Paxton has been courting Latino voters as the campaigns compete in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1988. Cost of living, inflation, wages and taxes are central issues: Talarico has proposed higher taxes on the wealthy to fund social programs, while Paxton has emphasized tax deductions and blamed inflation on Biden administration policies. Paxton has also criticized Talarico’s church over its sanctuary work, members’ beliefs and a transgender pride flag; reporting supports some claims with recorded remarks but does not substantiate all of Paxton’s characterizations.

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