El Ni mo Haze Threat
Southeast Asia Faces Extended Haze Risk into October 2026 Due to El Ni mo, Biofuel Deforestation
Anonymous
Key Points
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Scientists predict this El Niño cycle could be a 'super El Niño', putting 2026 and 2027 on track for exceptionally sizzling years.
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The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop in July or August and could prolong the dry season, extending it into October.
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Indonesia’s fire-management budgets are reportedly 'under pressure' amid public spending cuts, signaling a potential strain on regional fire-prevention readiness.
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Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are raising cost pressures on Southeast Asia’s agriculture, including fuel shortages and higher fertilizer prices.
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Fertilizer and energy price spikes tied to broader geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran-related events) could increase production costs and may incentivize land-clearing by fire as a cost-saving measure, in tandem with rising biofuel demand.
Southeast Asia is on red alert for severe transboundary haze in 2026, with peak danger expected in August and September. The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued the warning on June 24 — only the second red alert since the rating system began in 2019 — citing a converging "perfect storm" of climate, economic, and political pressures, according to CNA.
A developing El Niño — which scientists warn could become a rare "super" event — is set to bake the region with extreme heat and drought. Singapore Minister Grace Fu warned that "Southeast Asia faces a perfect storm caused by a double whammy of geopolitical developments and climate change," Global News reported. If a positive Indian Ocean Dipole also develops in July or August, the dry season could stretch deep into October.
Super El Niño and IOD Push Haze Risk to October
NOAA puts the probability of a "strong" El Niño at 63%, according to Human Resources Online. El Niño suppresses rainfall across the Malay Archipelago, turning forests and peatlands into tinder. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre says El Niño conditions are already present and will peak in August–September, The Straits Times reported.
The real wildcard is the Indian Ocean Dipole. A positive IOD — expected to form in July or August — pulls moisture away from Southeast Asia and toward East Africa. SIIA Senior Assistant Director Aaron Choo noted that the worst haze events in history, including 1997 and 2015, happened when El Niño and a positive IOD struck at the same time, according to The Edge Singapore. The 1997 crisis cost the region $9.3 billion; the 2015 event cost Indonesia alone $16.1 billion.
Budget Cuts Leave Frontline Firefighters Without Fuel
Indonesia's Prabowo administration has cut over Rp300 trillion from the national budget in a sweeping "efficiency" drive. Central-to-regional fund transfers — which pay for provincial firefighters, vehicles, and water pumps — have been slashed. By April 2026, fire-management budgets in Riau and Kalimantan were already reported as "exhausted" due to early-season blazes, The Straits Times reported.
Non-subsidized fuel prices in Indonesia have risen 32%, further squeezing patrol operations, according to ABS-CBN. Indonesia's Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni has already requested an emergency Rp6.23 trillion for 2027 to rebuild fire-management capacity. Over 800 hotspots were detected across Indonesia and Malaysia by late March 2026 — the highest number for that month in seven years, Global News reported.
Fertilizer Price Shock Makes Slash-and-Burn More Tempting
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026 blocked roughly 21 million metric tons of annual urea exports, according to IFPRI. Southeast Asian granular urea prices surged to $750 per metric ton by March 19 — up nearly 50% from pre-conflict levels of around $490, S&P Global reported. Clearing land by fire costs almost nothing by comparison.
Indonesia is also set to implement a B50 biodiesel mandate on July 1, requiring that 50% of diesel contain palm oil. SIIA Chairman Associate Professor Simon Tay warned that rising biofuel demand creates a high risk of "unsustainable plantation expansion" using fire, according to The Business Times. S&P Global analysts note a sharp "disconnect" between soaring fertilizer costs and weak crop prices, squeezing farmer margins and making illegal land-clearing more attractive.
1997 and 2015 Loom as Cautionary Precedents for the Region
The SIIA's red alert is a rare signal. It has only been issued once before, in 2019. Environmental analysts say the 2026 risk profile closely mirrors 1997 and 2015 — the two worst haze years on record for Southeast Asia. Both years featured a strong El Niño combined with a positive IOD, according to Reuters.
Indonesia insists it has made progress. Minister Antoni told a UN event that Indonesia cut land fires by 86% through stronger prevention and stricter enforcement, The Jakarta Post reported. But think tanks and market analysts warn that local budget exhaustion, record heat, and surging fertilizer costs could overwhelm those gains. SIIA says governance could improve under Prabowo's more centralized control — but the window to act before August is closing fast, according to The Business Times.
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